Wood Mackenzie predicts solar growth will stagnate in 2025
The global solar market is on course to add 493 GW (DC) of solar this year, according to forecasts by Wood Mackenzie. The figure would be a 0.5% decline on the 495 GW of installed solar in 2024.
Sylvia Leyva Martinez, Wood Mackenzie’s principal analyst for utility-scale solar in North America, said solar deployment will decelerate in many countries as policy changes come to fruition.
“Post-election uncertainty, waning incentives, power sector reforms and a shift towards less ambitious climate agendas will drive solar installations to stagnate at 493 GWdc after years of exponential growth,” Martinez explained.
The projection forms part of Wood Mackenzie’s latest report, “Global solar: four things to look for in 2025,” which is also predicting this year will see module prices increase again to compensate for significant losses in profits that manufacturers have experienced.
Yana Hryshko, managing consultant and head of global solar supply chain research for Wood Mackenzie, said China will remain the dominant manufacturing hub, while India, the US and the Middle East are expected to add at least 100 GW to global solar manufacturing capacity.
“Coordination by Chinese manufacturers, supported by the Chinese government, will be the key to bringing about rationalisation of the industry,” Hryshko added.
The report also predicts that data-center demand of solar will rise due to the adoption of artificial intelligence, with Wood Mackenzie currently tracking more than 100 GW of proposed data centers.
“Data center demand for firm, zero-emissions capacity will reshape solar project origination and development,” said Martinez. “A higher share of solar projects will be paired with wind, storage and/or natural gas to meet higher energy needs, and we will see innovation in contractual terms, business models, and system architectures. Data center-driven competition for energy will increase solar power purchase agreements prices.”
Wood Mackenzie is also expecting technological shifts in solar equipment this year. Sagar Chopra, a senior research analyst for Wood Mackenzie, says voltage inverter architecture will increase to 2,000 V (DC), AI-powered smart trackers will enhance efficiency and robots will be used increasingly in construction and maintenance to address rising labor costs and shortages.
“The multi-decade path of continued solar technology improvement still has plenty of room to continue,” Chopra added.
Wood Mackenzie recently released its PV module manufacturer rankings for the first half of the year, as well as a report on how the upstream sector could meet the demands of a delayed energy transition.
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