High electricity prices in California have nothing to do with renewables
New research from Stanford University has shown that California could massively rely on renewable energies to cover its electricity demand without risks of blackouts and high energy prices.
“Our work shows that the main grid in the world's fifth-largest economy was able to provide more than 100% of the electricity that it used from only four clean renewable sources: solar, wind, hydroelectric, and geothermal, for anywhere from 5 minutes to over 10 hours per day for 98 out of 116 days during late winter, all of spring, and early summer, as well as for 132 days during the entire year of 2024, without its grid failing,” Mark Jacobson, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University and the research's lead author, told pv magazine.
According to the study, the growth of solar, wind, and battery storage, in particular, resulted in fossil gas use dropping 40% during the 116-day period and 25% during the entire year of 2024 relative to 2023. “In comparison with 2023, solar, wind, and battery capacities increased significantly, with batteries doubling in capacity,” Jacobson added. “In fact, batteries met a peak of 12% of nighttime demand during the period of interest. The decrease, in just one year of 25% of gas use on the CAISO grid indicates the complete phase-out of gas is approaching. This also debunks the myth that gas must increase when renewables increase on the grid.”
Jacobson also explained that high electricity prices in California have nothing to do with renewables. “Without renewables, prices would have been higher,” he went on to say. “In fact, 10 of the 11 U.S. states with higher fractions of their demand powered by renewables have among the lowest U.S. electricity prices. Instead, in California, the spot price of electricity dropped by over 50% during the period of interest between 2023 and 2024, indicating it was easier to match demand with supply with the increase in renewables and batteries in 2024.”
According to Jacobson, California electricity prices are high because of several reasons that have nothing to do with renewables. These include high fossil gas prices, utilities passing on to customers the cost of wildfires due to transmission-line sparks, the cost of undergrounding transmission lines to reduce such fires, the costs of the San Bruno and Aliso Canyon gas disasters, the cost of retrofitting gas pipes following San Bruno, the cost of upgrading aging transmission and distribution lines, and the cost of keeping the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant open.
“In sum, available data indicate that increasing the share of wind, solar and hydropower reduces electricity prices throughout the United States,” Jacobson stated. “When high prices occur, they are not due to renewables.”
The researchers concluded by saying that building an energy system based exclusively on renewable energy could be technically challenging but economically feasible, with behind-the-meter solar and batteries contributing to reducing the remaining use of fossil gas in the face of growing electricity demand. Furthermore, they believe that nighttime demand could be met with offshore wind, which
peaks during evenings and summers in California, and by shifting more hydroelectricity to night from day, as well as by using demand response more effectively.
The research findings are available in the paper “No blackouts or cost increases due to 100 % clean, renewable electricity powering California for parts of 98 days,” which was recently published in Renewable Energy.
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