Global solar module prices mixed on differing demand outlook
FOB China: The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark assessment for TOPCon modules from China was stable at $0.085/W Free-On-Board (FOB) China, with price indications between $0.080-0.090/W.
Demand remains subdued ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Despite recent increases in upstream costs, module prices remain stable, largely due to high downstream inventories, which have absorbed much of the cost pressure.
A Tier 1 producer expects prices to stabilize rather than increase in the short term, as high downstream inventories continue to shield the market from upstream volatility. Meanwhile, another producer noted that cell prices appear to have “bottomed out,” which could provide “mild support” for module prices in the second-half of 2025.
In capacity updates, several module plants have halted production or reduced operating rates in January due to the festive season and poor market conditions. Producers are hoping to resume operating rates by mid-February following the holiday lull.
Europe: TOPCon modules prices slipped by 2% on a weekly basis, while overcapacity and stocks continue to keep prices down. OPIS assessed the average price at €0.096/W, with indications between a low of €0.080/W and a high of €0.115/W for Tier 1 panels.
According to sources, demand and production of solar PV in east European countries such as Romania, Serbia, Poland, Slovenia and Ukraine, is rapidly growing. The manufacturers are smaller companies with less capacity (around 500 MW in total), and “they are more flexible, and they deliver”.
Insiders commented that Eastern Europe has a less stringent regulatory environment for building manufacturing facilities, and therefore they can build faster than other European countries. They are implementing rapidly, and they will be ready for West European demand, sources said.
U.S.: The spot price for TOPCon utility-scale modules DDP US rose this week 0.35% to $0.285/W. On a forward-looking basis, OPIS is assessing the cost of TOPCon modules at $0.293/W in the second quarter of 2025, $0.291/W in the third quarter and $0.282/W at the end of the year and into 2026.
While renewable project tax credits survived Trump’s first week back in office, the President signed a slate of executive orders signaling that the Inflation Reduction Act is very much on the table, with one taking aim at loans and grants in the bill, though most of the allocated funds were “obligated” to projects prior to his inauguration. Tax attorneys say the language does not cover the 30% ITC, and Congressional approval will be needed to rescind the tax incentives or modify their phase-out schedule and adders, like the domestic content bonus.
According to a source, prices for utility scale TOPCon modules DDP U.S. between $0.21/W to $0.23/W from Indonesia, in the mid 0.20s for India, in the mid-to-high 0.20s for American modules assembled with imported cells, and between $0.24/W and $0.25/W for modules assembled in Vietnam with cells imported from countries in the region not subject to the ongoing AD/CVD probe.
Join OPIS solar market experts on 6 February for a webinar examining how trade policies worldwide are disrupting the global solar supply chain. Key topics to be discussed during “Solar 2025: Bust-Ups, Break-Ups And Shake-Ups” include Polysilicon Supply Chain Diversification, Chinese Manufacturers' Overseas Strategies, US PV Manufacturing and Trade Policies, and Europe's PV Manufacturing Renaissance. Learn more and register here.
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